We made it! After what has to be the lengthiest awards cycle in history, the 93rd Academy Awards is finally here to award films released in 2020. Like everything else tied to 2020, this year’s Oscars should be impossible to predict – which means the task I have at hand should be fun, right?
Like last year, I will approach the predictions from what the Academy will likely do and from a “reel” perspective in which I’ll give my thoughts on the category. If I’m right, chalk it up to my brilliance. If I’m off, we’ll blame the pandemic and write it off. I’ve done enough talking already so let’s get down to business:
BEST ACTOR
Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal
Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Anthony Hopkins, The Father
Gary Oldman, Mank
Steven Yeun, Minari
Who’ll Probably Take the Statue: Even as early as January 2020, almost a year before Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom’s official release, the word was Chadwick Boseman stole the show and would be the Best Actor frontrunner. Nothing has changed that. He dominated the major and juried film awards and will be adding an Oscar to the list.
The Reel Spill: Boseman would still be the pick even if a very deserving Delroy Lindo received a nomination for his performance in Da Five Bloods. Boseman’s closest competition is Hopkins and Ahmed, with Hopkins having the best shot at a win. Oldman was damn good in Mank but nowhere near the level of those mentioned in the previous sentences. Yeun, who likely got the nomination that should have gone to Lindo, honestly wasn’t even the best actor in Minari.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Sasha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami
Paul Raci, Sound of Metal
LaKeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah
Who’ll Probably Take the Statue: Like Boseman, Kaluuya was an Oscar favorite as soon as his film screened. Kaluuya was more dominant than Boseman on the awards circuit, with his only loss from the D.C. Critics Association awards (Odom, Jr. won that trophy). Nothing changes on Oscar Night.
The Reel Spill: Kaluuya is like Tom Hanks in 2019 – he probably should have been in the lead actor category instead of supporting. As a result of that mistake, this is the most predictable category of the night instead of the most competitive one.
Raci might be the greatest threat to upset Kaluuya, but all of the nominees in this category are easily in the “he would win any other year” status.
BEST ACTRESS
Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman
Frances McDormand, Nomadland
Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
Who’ll Probably Take the Statue: Everyone in this category except Kirby has a real shot at taking home this trophy. Each member of the remaining foursome of Davis, Day, McDormand, and Mulligan has been a frontrunner at varying points throughout the awards cycle. I think the Academy goes with Davis, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see them take Mulligan or an equally deserving Day instead.
The Reel Spill: This should really be a two-party race between Davis and Day. My early favorite was Davis, but I warmed to Day the more I thought about everything she did to make her Billie Holiday work in an incredibly flawed film.
McDormand took a backseat to the novice performers that surrounded her most of the movie. Mulligan’s and Kirby’s performances didn’t distinguish themselves in a way that made you think no one else could have played those roles and aided by very well-written scripts.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy
Olivia Colman, The Father
Amanda Seyfried, Mank
Yuh-Jun Youn, Minari
Who’ll Probably Take the Statue: While she does face possible upsets from Coleman and Bakalova, I think the Academy goes with Youn. There was a push for Bakalova early and a push for Coleman later in the race, but Youn has been the darling of Awards Season and that won’t stop at the Oscars.
The Reel Spill: As anyone who spoke with me about Borat Subsequent Moviefilm knows, I was early on the Oscar for Bakalova bandwagon and I’m riding it out until the end. She had a greater degree of difficulty than the other nominees due to 99% of the folks she shared the screen with being unaware of what was taking place around them and she nailed it.
Youn’s was impressive with her Madeaesque grandmother, but she didn’t get good until the 2nd half of the movie. Colman’s nomination feels more like reputation than performance-based because she doesn’t have much impact on the film. Seyfried made another leap in her still blossoming career but doesn’t compare to the frontrunners. Close’s chances were doomed from day one because her film was so bad in every other aspect that wasn’t her.
BEST DIRECTOR
Lee Isaac Chung, Minari
Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman
David Fincher, Mank
Thomas Vinterberg, Another Round
Chloé Zhao, Nomadland
Who’ll Probably Take the Statue: This race is between Fennell, Finch, and Zhao. I believe the Academy will ultimately pick Zhao, but Fincher or Fennell could easily pull the upset.
The Reel Spill: Zhao should honestly be the far and away winner. What she was able to accomplish using a majority novice cast is one thing. The way she layered smaller, intimate moments to establish an impactful story instead of flamboyant, dramatic flair makes it special.
Chung should be next in line as his film and direction featured almost the same strengths as Zhao. The only difference was that Chung had more professional actors to work with and a language barrier to overcome.
Fennell did a fantastic job balancing the entertainment and messaging aspects of Promising Young Woman, but Zhao’s command of the technical elements gives her an edge.
Fincher made the ultimate cinephile movie, but it was Oscar bait paint by numbers. Feeling Mank was solely intended for that purpose is honestly insulting.
BEST PICTURE
The Father
Judas and the Black Messiah
Mank
Minari
Nomadland
Promising Young Woman
Sound of Metal
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Who’ll Probably Take the Statue: Nomadland appears to be the favorite. Minari and Promising Young Woman could pull the upset if voters don’t follow the way of the other awards, but Nomadland seems to be on solid footing here.
The Reel Spill: My personal favorite is Nomadland simply because it is the best all-around movie. Minari is a close second, but the technical aspects of Nomadland again give it the edge for me.
The importance of Promising Young Woman is apparent when men and women are ok with a film using date rape as a comedic plot point and brag about enjoying it. However, that importance doesn’t make it a better picture than Nomadland or Minari.
Mank’s cinephile-based approach is too limited to beat films with greater appeal. The other nominees are excellent films in their own right but aren’t as well-rounded as the frontrunners.
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