I’m not sure if it’s just me or if some people did a lot of lying about how good they claim some of this year's Oscar contenders were. Regardless, I can’t remember a time when I felt more disconnected from what movie lovers and the Academy were thinking. Making predictions feels more shaky than ever before, but that isn’t enough to scare me from doing this.
If this is your first time here, my approach to the predictions is 1) discussing the snub(s) of a respective category in the “It Should’ve Been You” section; 2) giving the Academy’s likely pick in the “Who’ll Win the Statue” section; and 3) a “reel” perspective in which I reveal my favorite and give my thoughts on the category. Now, on to the picks!
Best Supporting Actress
Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer
Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple
America Ferrera, Barbie
Jodie Foster, Nyad
Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
It Should’ve Been You: Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest; Viola Davis, Air. It isn’t the flashiest performance, but Hüller’s turn as an Auschwitz commandant’s wife who makes having the infamous concentration camp and the evils it produced literally in her backyard seem normal is chilling in the most subtle way possible. Davis was a force in Air, but the film’s early spring 2023 release caused her dynamic performance to get lost in the shuffle.
Who’ll Win the Statue: Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
The Reel Spill: Randolph, by far, had the greatest impact on her film out of all the nominees, which will win this award for her. Like an x-factor in sports, she cedes most of the shine to the leading men but delivers both the Holdovers’s best comedic and dramatic moments when her number is called. Brooks’s case for the trophy gets hurt by being derivative of the same role in the OG The Color Purple, sans the musical numbers. Blunt is the victim of being in a strong ensemble that doesn’t allow her to serve the kind of notice needed to win. Ferrera’s performance was solid but nothing spectacular aside from the monologue about being a woman, which was the product of superb writing. Foster didn’t do anything in Nyad that bested Hüller or Davis.
Best Supporting Actor
Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction
Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon
Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer
Ryan Gosling, Barbie
Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things
It Should’ve Been You: Nobody. Some would argue Charles Melton for May December, and they would be loud and wrong. He wasn’t bad, but nowhere near the level of this group.
Who’ll Win the Statue: Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer
The Reel Spill: Downey Jr. proclaimed early on that this part was his best work and he wasn’t lying. Honestly, his hold on this award is one of the only sure Oscar-related things this year. My favorite performance in this category was De Niro. He played the William Hale part so well that he could have made the Best Actor category. I’d love to see an upset here, but it’s not happening. Brown and Ruffalo were excellent nominations who would have much better odds any other year. I get why Gosling was nominated, but his performance wasn’t the revelation some made it out to be. I saw his The Nice Guys performance in Ken a lot, so I wasn’t as moved.
Best Director
Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall
Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Yorgus Lanthimos, Poor Things
Johnathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest
It Should’ve Been You: Cord Jefferson, American Fiction. While he doesn’t have the technical hallmarks the nominees in this category possess, the balancing act of satire and heartfelt commentary on race and family Jefferson pulls off with American Fiction made for more impressive storytelling than at least two nominees.
Who’ll Win the Statue: Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
The Reel Spill: The Academy has routinely played in Nolan’s face with only two Best Director nominations before this one and no wins. That ends tonight, thanks to Nolan doing his most character-driven work to create a film that is second to none in serving as a stark warning about nuclear conflict. Scorsese also crafted a masterpiece that hits close to home with its social commentary, but his chances for a win suffer due to lulls in Flower Moon that didn’t exist in Oppenheimer. Jefferson could have replaced Truiet, Lanthimos, or Glazer because their films relied heavily on other aspects of filmmaking to the point where you may get the same movie without them at the helm.
Best Actress
Annette Bening, Nyad
Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall
Carey Mulligan, Maestro
Emma Stone, Poor Things
It Should’ve Been You: Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Origin; Margot Robbie, Barbie. Ellis-Taylor’s performance as Origin author Isabel Wilkerson was a top 2 performance by an actress this year for me. While it can be said the lack of a legitimate campaign is the culprit for her absence, all voters had to do was watch the film to see Ellis-Taylor was head and shoulders above most of the nominees. Robbie’s snub likely came from her Barbie being close to Emma Stone’s Bella Baxter, and Stone was better. The only difference between them is Barbie’s existential exploration was PG-13 to sell merchandise and a palatable brand of femininity. On Bella’s end, the journey was a hard R that gave you feminism, raw and uncut. However, Robbie carried the film in ways folks swore Gosling did and was worthy of a nomination.
Who’ll Win the Statue: Emma Stone, Poor Things
The Reel Spill: The safe choice is Gladstone, as she’s had a nice and well-deserved run this awards season. That said, Stone was my favorite performance in this category, so I’m going with her in an upset. While I appreciate the fact that Gladstone’s conveyance of grief was the heart of a film that tore mine apart, it was Stone carrying Poor Things with how she deftly and believably progressed the Bella character from “birth” to womanhood. Mulligan was excellent in Maestro, and why I encouraged people to watch it, but her performance was a tier below Gladstone and Stone. Hüller and Bening were enjoyable, but those nominations belonged to Ellis-Taylor and Robbie.
Best Actor
Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Colman Domingo, Rustin
Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction
It Should Have Been You: Nobody, the Academy nailed this one. While I do believe Leonardo DiCaprio’s turn in Killers of the Flower Moon was worthy of a nomination, two big issues are working against him – 1) there’s no weak link for him to replace in the group, and 2) he was overshadowed by De Niro’s supporting turn in the film.
Who’ll Win the Statue: Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
The Reel Spill: This year’s best actor category is the deepest and toughest to predict. Even with it being a two-person battle between Murphy and Giamatti, there’s still an outside chance Jeffrey Wright upends both and wins the Oscar. It’s tempting to pick another upset with Giamatti taking the statue over Murphy, but Murphy was too good in Oppenheimer to pick against. Domingo’s odds of winning would be better if Rustin had been better written and directed. I respect everything Cooper put into his turn as Leonard Bernstein in Maestro, but the execution pales in comparison to what the other nominees put on the screen.
Best Picture
American Fiction
Anatomy of a Fall
Barbie
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest
It Should’ve Been You: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse. Across the Spider-Verse was easily among the ten most complete films of the year. It was flawless from a technical standpoint with incredible visuals and a narrative one with a story that was equally entertaining, heartfelt, and inspiring (the “cannon” motif was brilliant for so many reasons and applicable to everyone).
Who’ll Take the Statue: Oppenheimer
The Reel Spill: If you take Oppenheimer apart piece by piece, you’d be hard-pressed to find a category that the film wasn’t at or just under the head of the class. The culmination of that is not only the year’s best picture but one of the 21st century’s best. Oppenheimer's haunting social relevance despite being set between the 1920s and 1950s further strengthens its case. Flower Moon has a similar impact, but the lulls hurt its narrative and pacing again, so it doesn’t resonate quite the same way. American Fiction can be a dark horse here, but I think Oppenheimer’s technical aspects give it an unbeatable edge.
As for the rest of the bunch, each lacks the dimensions to push it to the level of the trio mentioned above. Poor Things rests solely on the backs of Stone and Ruffalo. Maestro has a lot of good but not great outside of Mulligan’s performance. The Holdovers doesn’t measure up to them technically. Barbie falls into a similar situation, with its only hallmarks being the screenplay, set, and costume design. The Zone of Interest excels in technical categories but doesn’t move the needle otherwise. Past Lives was cool but didn’t stand out meaningfully in any categories.
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