While I’ve only taken predicting the Oscars seriously for a few years, the 2024 season was the toughest to get through. First, there’s the hangover from last year’s embarrassment of riches, with masterpieces like Oppenheimer and Killers of the Flower Moon battling it out. There’s a steep drop-off from that hallmark in this year’s nominees. Next, there’s the fact that frontrunners were practically nonexistent this season. If someone says they had the eventual winners picked from day one, they’re lying. The favorites shifted hour by hour like trending topics on X/Twitter. If there was ever a year where you do this for fun instead of betting or flexing purposes, this is it.
If you’re new here, my approach to the predictions is 1) discussing the snub(s) of a respective category in the “It Should’ve Been You” section; 2) giving the Academy’s likely pick in the “Who’ll Win the Statue” section; and 3) a “reel” perspective in which I reveal my favorite and give my thoughts on the category. Now, on to the picks!
Best Supporting Actress
Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown
Ariana Grande, Wicked
Felicity Jones, The Brutalist
Isabella Rossellini, Conclave
Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez
It Should’ve Been You: Lily-Rose Depp, Nosferatu; Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys. In a year where the Academy took a step forward in recognizing the horror genre, they took two steps back by snubbing Depp. Led by the fact special effects didn’t aid her possession scenes, her performance was easily one of the strongest supporting turns of 2024 and one of horror’s best in recent memory. The Ellis-Taylor snub is more egregious. Her performance in Nickel Boys is reminiscent of Mahershala Ali’s Oscar-winning work in Moonlight in that you feel Hattie’s presence throughout the film despite her limited screen time. Her “hug” scene alone is by far one of the best moments of cinema this season and warranted a nomination.
Who’ll Win the Statue: Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez
The Reel Spill: This category is a battle of the musicals with Saldaña, Barbaro, and Grande at the head of this race. All three ladies were equally adept in song and line delivery, but a win for Saldaña is the closest thing to a sure bet in this year’s Oscar races. What separates Saldaña from the pack is her work in Emilia Pérez’s powerful third act. It’s her most masterful dramatic work to date, and Barbaro’s and Grande’s parts lacked that level of gravity. Rossellini and Jones were good in their respective films, but neither stood out in a way that matched the trio above.
Best Supporting Actor
Yura Borisov, Anora
Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown
Guy Pearce, The Brutalist
Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice
It Should’ve Been You: Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing. Maclin’s snub was the most disappointing in this year’s Oscar race. I suspect playing a fictionalized version of himself in Sing Sing is why Maclin didn’t make the voters’ cut. However, it appears they didn’t apply the same logic to Culkin, whose nominated performance reminds me a lot of his Roman Roy character from Succession (same mannerisms but different motives). In that case, it shouldn’t have counted against Maclin and caused one of the year’s most moving performances to go unrecognized by the Academy.
Who’ll Win the Statue: Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
The Reel Spill: Things are a bit more competitive here. On the surface, Culkin looks like the runaway favorite. He’s been a deserving frontrunner since A Real Pain premiered because he’s so good at playing this crass, annoying, yet well-meaning character. Again, there is some redundancy with his Roman Roy character, but that doesn’t spoil this one at all. If there’s a chance for an upset, his fellow Succession cast member Strong has the chance to pull it off with his haunting portrayal of Roy Cohn in The Apprentice. Norton and Pearce are both strong enough to contend for the top prize any other year, but Culkin and Strong are just too far ahead. Borisov wasn’t even the best supporting actor in Anora (that honor belongs to Karren Karagulian) so this nomination should have gone to Maclin.
Best Director
Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez
Sean Baker, Anora
Brady Corbet, The Brutalist
Coralie Fargeat, The Substance
James Mangold, A Complete Unknown
It Should’ve Been You: Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two; RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys; Walter Salles, I’m Still Here. The Academy’s aversion to rewarding fantasy epic directors (see Peter Jackson and The Lord of the Rings trilogy) be damned, leaving Villeneuve out is criminal. The fact that he should probably win the award makes Villeneuve’s omission more ridiculous. Overlooking Ross and Salles is just as criminal, given how both crafted Best Picture nominees relying primarily on their creative choices and pacing instead of an A-list cast (Ellis-Taylor and Fernanda Torres notwithstanding) or budget. In Ross’s case, it’s his innovative use of the first-person perspective and some of the most imaginative cinematography to tell Nickel Boys’s powerful story. For Salles, his pacing of the Paiva family’s story makes I’m Still Here hit hard and stay with you long after the end credits roll.
Who’ll Win the Statue: Sean Baker, Anora
The Reel Spill: I’m underwhelmed by this category because the Academy missed so badly with its snubs. Baker is the likely choice because folks fell in love with Anora, but I’d love a Forgeat upset here. While Forgeat’s work in The Substance borrowed heavily from Kubrick and other horror staples, it plays out as beautifully as any elite film on screen. Mangold’s and Corbet’s efforts meet the classic standards for what generally wins Best Director, but I think the Academy’s recent shift from its past in this category doesn’t bode well for them. Audiard’s helming of Emilia Perez might be the film's least impressive aspect and pales compared to what the other nominees accomplished.
Best Actress
Cynthia Erivo, Wicked
Karla Sofía Gascón, Emilia Pérez
Mikey Madison, Anora
Demi Moore, The Substance
Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here
It Should’ve Been You: Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths. Jean-Baptiste presents another case of the snub being the deserving winner. Her performance as Pansy is by far one of the best portrayals of depression and the ways it manifests I’ve seen in a long time. The cantankerous banter and clapbacks pull you in, but Jean-Baptiste hits another level when the film shows what’s underneath Pansy’s rough exterior. Leaving out Jean-Baptiste is yet another unforgivable goof by the Academy in a category rife with unforgivable goofs lately.
Who’ll Win the Statue: Mikey Madison, Anora
The Reel Spill: Probably the most competitive category of the night. While Madison is the likely winner in this category, I rank her performance last among the nominees. I think Torres is the special one in the group and can pull off the upset. Salles’s pacing of I’m Still Here matters, but Torres’s layered performance allowed him and the film to avoid swinging big for gravitas and emotion. Gascón was a worthy challenger, but a severe case of self-sabotage ended her run. Erivo was sensational in Wicked, but her performance leans too heavily on singing to compete with the others ahead of her. Moore could be a candidate for a lifetime achievement win here, but given how much weight The Substance’s makeup and special effects carry in her performance, I don’t see it happening.
Best Actor
Adrian Brody, The Brutalist
Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
Colman Domingo, Sing Sing
Ralph Fiennes, Conclave
Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice
It Should Have Been You: Chalamet, Dune: Part Two; Stan, A Different Man. Weird to say the Academy snubbed someone they nominated, but it’s true in the cases of Chalamet and Stan. How? Their performances in Dune: Part Two and A Different Man, respectively, were light years better than the roles for which they received nominations.
Who’ll Win the Statue: Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
The Reel Spill: He’s run the best campaign of anyone in the category, but Chalamet truly deserves the statue should he win it. Where singing performances may have hurt Erivo in her category, it helps Chalamet because 1) singing is the most significant part of the person he portrays, and 2) it’s a spot-on performance. Brody is the only threat to a Chalamet win, and he’s a big one. The fact Brody is playing an original character and does it well might be the edge that gets him the votes over Chalamet. Domingo is in a situation similar to his last nomination – spectacular, but the frontrunners are too far ahead. Fiennes was pitch-perfect for Conclave, but I’m not sure his performance stands out among the rest of the film’s ensemble, let alone this category. Stan wasn’t the best actor in The Apprentice (Strong wholly owned the movie) and doesn’t come close to what the rest of the nominees here put on display.
Best Picture
Anora
The Brutalist
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Pérez
I’m Still Here
Nickel Boys
The Substance
Wicked
It Should’ve Been You: Sing Sing; Flow.
Who’ll Take the Statue: The Brutalist
The Reel Spill: Anora seems to be the darling at this point, but I feel The Brutalist gets the upset here. Anora is a good film, but it has nothing that truly bests the other nominees. The Brutalist offers far more great elements. Like Oppenheimer last year, you’d be hard-pressed to find a category that The Brutalist wasn’t at or just under the head of the class.
Dune: Part Two was my favorite film of 2024, but I think releasing it a year ago caused it to fall victim to recency bias. Plus, it lacks the acting awards to be taken seriously here. Emilia Pérez is this year’s Power of the Dog – loved during the nomination process but fell hard compared to the elite. I seriously doubt if Gascón’s tweets got it to this point. I’m Still Here and Nickel Boys are incredible films that didn’t have enough star power to compete with the more prominent nominees. Aside from Chalamet and its sound editing, A Complete Unknown didn’t stand out in any other way. Wicked and The Substance deserved their nominations but never had a chance at winning here.
Comentarios