Oscars Predictions 2026

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To give you an idea of how awful last year’s Oscars were, the Academy made a new rule requiring members to watch every film in a category if they wanted to vote on that category. Yes, the Academy literally told folks they needed to watch the movies before deciding if they were the best. Thankfully, this year’s nominees make that task a lot easier than it would have been in 2025. There are still a few questionable nominations, but the Academy did well overall.

If you’re new here, my approach to the predictions is 1) I only do the 6 biggest categories on here. I post my full ballot to my socials closer to showtime; 2) I discuss the snub(s) of a respective category in the “It Should’ve Been You” section; 3) I give the Academy’s likely pick in the “Who’ll Win the Statue” section; and 4) I give a “reel” perspective in the “The Reel Spill” section which I reveal my favorite and give my thoughts on the category. Now, on to the picks!

Best Supporting Actress

Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value

Inga Ibsodotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value

Amy Madigan, Weapons

Wumi Mosaku, Sinners

Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another

It Should’ve Been You: Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good. While Wicked: For Good was a disappointment (aside from wardrobe and tech), Grande actually bested her Oscar-nominated performance in the previous film. With a more layered portrayal of Glinda this time around, Grande shows she can do far more than sing and act as comic relief when given the material and opportunity. She had zero shot at winning this category, but I definitely felt her performance was more worthy of recognition than Fanning’s.

Who’ll Win the Statue: Amy Madigan, Weapons

The Reel Spill: So tough to choose a winner in this category. My pick to win is Madigan, but anybody from the trio of her, Mosaku, and Taylor could win. Madigan gets the edge because her performance changes Weapons into a completely different film. Mosaku and Taylor come close to that type of impact and are just as essential to their respective films’ plots, but they become far more complementary as those films continue. Lilleaas impresses with a sense of calm and heart in a film centered on family trauma, but that’s not enough to compete with the forces in the trio discussed above. Fanning was more deserving of a nomination last year and is simply punching above her weight class in this year’s group.

Best Supporting Actor

Benicio Del Toro, One Battle After Another

Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein

Delroy Lindo, Sinners

Sean Penn, One Battle After Another

Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value

It Should’ve Been You: There weren’t any snubs here, but the fact I can easily name two actors I would have love to see make the cut tells you how good Best Supporting Actor is this year. Sorry Baby’s John Carroll Lynch and Train Dreams’s William H. Macy are the longshots that it would have been nice to see sneak in. Carroll has only about six minutes in the film, but he uses it to give one of the most heartfelt and moving scenes in cinema last year. A truly underrated gem that could hold its own within this category. Macy is in a similar situation as Carroll where he truly makes the most of extremely limited screen time.

Who’ll Win the Statue: Delroy Lindo, Sinners

The Reel Spill: Just like its actress counterpart, this group features a very competitive three-person race between Lindo, Penn, and Skarsgård. Lindo gets the edge for me by being the heart and soul of Sinners in addition to delivering the best monologue in cinema last year. Penn’s case is equally strong, but my knock against him is that his performance felt more like an impression than acting out a character’s traits. Skarsgård’s momentum waned as awards season progressed, but he might have a better chance than Penn for the upset. The fact that his performance felt more like a lead than a supporting role is a negative to me, but could be a positive to the Academy. If Skarsgård doesn’t win, you have to wonder if he’ll regret campaigning in the more competive supporting pool instead of going with the easier path Best Actor presented him. Lordi and Del Toro were both excellent in their respective roles, but again, the frontrunners in their category are light-years ahead of them.

Best Director

Chloe Zhao, Hamnet

Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme

Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another

Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value

Ryan Coogler, Sinners

It Should’ve Been You: Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein; Clint Bentley, Train Dreams. Even with the marked improvement of worthy nominees in this category when compared to last year’s group, leaving del Toro and Bentley out feels criminal. Feeling like the unwarranted hype for Safdie is the reason both missed makes the snub cut deeper. Del Toro reinvigorated the lore of one of literature and film’s most iconic characters and humanized him in a way never seen in any film adaptations. Bentley combined the forestry of the Pacific Northwest and Will Patton’s elite voiceover work to tell one of the most creative yet familiar and intimate stories of the year. Both of those are far more interesting (and better) than two hours of a ping pong player doing toxic things.

Who’ll Win the Statue: Ryan Coogler, Sinners

The Reel Spill: Whether you say he bent, blended, or created an entirely new genre, Coogler created something so special with Sinners that it became the most nominated film in Oscar history. If that level of respect from the Academy doesn’t spell out you’re head and shoulders above the field, I don’t know what does. On my personal list, I would place Zhao in second place because Hamnet is an extremely well-done emotional rollercoaster, but the slow pacing of her films is always a sore spot for me. Beyond Coogler and Zhao, I wasn’t blown away. I’ll always be a PTA fan, but the fact that his longevity in the awards circuit is being used as an argument to award him this Oscar shows he isn’t the most deserving of it. As for Trier and Safdie, I think Bentley and del Toro belonged in those slots.

Best Actress

Jessie Buckley, Hamnet

Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs, I’d Kick You

Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue

Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value

Emma Stone, Bugonia

It Should’ve Been You: Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby. Victor was yet another victim of the weak awards campaign put forth for Sorry, Baby. Her depiction of a sexual assault survivor was the most unique I’ve ever seen. Victor’s portrayal of Agnes was a delicate yet powerful balancing act, giving space to acknowledge the horror that happened without trauma-bombing while showing it’s not impossible to keep moving forward. It’s tough to pull that off without alienating a side, and Victor’s ability to do it so well in her first starring role deserved more consideration here.

Who’ll Win the Statue: Jessie Buckley, Hamnet

The Reel Spill: This year, Best Actress is the least competitive category of the night because no one comes remotely close to what Buckley did in Hamnet. The raw emotion her performance brought to the screen would come off as clichéd or a caricature for most actors. However, Buckley made it an exhibition in making the audience feel everything with the character. If there’s a possible upset, it’s with Byrne. Her performance is just a notch below Buckley’s and only takes a hit because Legs gets unnecessarily abstract at times. I enjoyed the other three nominees’ performances, but none of them felt Oscar-worthy.

Best Actor

Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme

Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another

Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon

Michael B. Jordan, Sinners

Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent

It Should Have Been You: Hugh Jackman, Song Sung Blue. Jackman’s turn as real-life Neil Diamond tribute artist Mike Sardina brings to mind one of sports’ most overused clichés – he “just gets it done”. In arguably his most earnest role to date, Jackman is no flash and all heart and charisma in delivering the most inspirational performance from a lead actor this cycle. He’s deserving of all the awards season love his co-star Hudson received and definitely warranted a nomination in this category over a couple of guys.

Who’ll Win the Statue: Michael B. Jordan, Sinners 

The Reel Spill: While most are claiming this category is a squabble between Jordan and DiCaprio, I think there’s another name whose performance is light years ahead of everybody not named Jordan – Hawke. Jordan is my pick because he gave two performances that would have been Oscar-worthy if Coogler had decided to make Smoke or Stack into a solo act instead of twins. That said, Hawke is equally impressive as his portrayal of Lorenz Hart is a masterclass in using flamboyance as a safe space to hide from everything within and around him. DiCaprio comes in a distant third behind those two for me because his Bob felt way too much like the Dude from The Big Lebowski. Moura was good in The Secret Agent, but I also think this is a case where the script and story did all the heavy lifting. Chalamet, in my opinion, was never the frontrunner people claimed he was before his opera and ballet comments or cringy campaign.

Best Picture

Bugonia

F1

Frankenstein

Hamnet

Marty Supreme

One Battle After Another

The Secret Agent

Sentimental Value

Sinners

Train Dreams

It Should’ve Been You: Sorry, Baby. My take on why Sorry, Baby should have made the cut mirrors the cases I made for Lynch and Victor to be nominated – its power lies in the care and attention it gives to the survivor of an awful and traumatic experience. All mediums have often gotten it wrong in their coverage or portrayals of surviving sexual assault, but Sorry, Baby nailed it and just so happened to make a better film than most in the best picture list as a result.

Who’ll Take the Statue: Sinners

The Reel Spill: Sinners is my pick here for the same primary reason I picked Coogler for Best Director – having your peers say you were among the best in more categories than any other film in the 98-year history of the Oscars says you are the best picture. Plus, Sinners is an original film, a rarity amid the daily greenlighting of more sequels, reboots, and adaptations. Detractors will try to make the argument that Sinners is a From Dusk Til Dawn ripoff. For that argument, I challenge them to name a movie about vampires that didn’t use being trapped somewhere at night as a plot point, and a stake through the heart or wait for daylight to kill or escape said vampires as strategies…I’ll wait.

One Battle After Another was only a few nominations total behind Sinners, but it should have been even further behind in my opinion. I think, aside from Penn’s supporting performance and the cinematography, there was a lot of good but nothing great about it. Hamnet and Train Dreams were better-acted and helmed films, and The Secret Agent was more socially relevant than OBAA ever was, both things OBAA lovers hung their hats on. Frankenstein was better than OBAA in those same areas as well. F1 was only spectacular on the technical side, but average everywhere else. Marty Supreme and Bulgonia were hyped beyond belief and should have been nowhere near a Best Picture conversation, let alone nomination.