Eleven months after a ceremony that trended for all the wrong reasons, the Oscars are back to recognize the year’s best in film and not a moment too soon. After a stellar first weekend, my NCAA bracket went to hell this weekend so I need to move on, and there’s no better way than making Oscar picks. I fared pretty well last year until Best Actress (the only category I completely missed because I saw the Hopkins win being a real possibility).
This year, I added a section called “It Should Have Been You,” where I pay a little homage to the late, great Teddy Pendergrass and discuss those who should have been nominees in a respective category. Everything else is still the same - I will approach the predictions from what the Academy will likely do and from a “reel” perspective in which I’ll give my thoughts on the category. If I’m right, I’m a genius. If I’m wrong, we’ll chalk it up to high gas prices. Without further ado, I let’s make some picks
Best Supporting Actress
Jessica Buckley, The Lost Daughter
Ariana Debose, West Side Story
Judi Dench, Belfast
Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard
It Should Have Been You – Ruth Negga, Passing; Kathyrn Hunter, The Tragedy of Macbeth; Rita Moreno, West Side Story. After every other major film association nominated her in this category, the Academy leaving Negga out is another example of their issues giving the stories by and about people of color the proper consideration. Were there better performances? Yes, but I can only count two that were. Hunter’s snub isn’t as bad as Negga's, but it’s still bad considering Hunter's so much better than a couple of those nominated ahead of her. Honestly, it feels like the Lupita Nyong'o snub for Us. Moreno is a more challenging argument to make. She gave West Side Story its heart, but limited screen time hurt her nomination chances.
Who’ll Win the Statue: Debose
The Reel Spill: As much as I love the thought of Debose winning this category, Ellis is equally as deserving. Holding her own opposite peak Will Smith is what got Ellis here, and outshining him in some scenes could be enough to score her the slight upset. After Debose and Ellis, the only other nominee whose performance is rightfully in this category is Dunst. Buckley and Dench turned in fine performances in their respective films (although Dench may have been more limited than Moreno), but neither was better than Negga, Hunter, or Moreno.
Best Supporting Actor
Ciarán Hinds, Belfast
Troy Kotsur, CODA
Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog
J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos
Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog
It Should Have Been You: David Alvarez, West Side Story; Andrew Garfield, The Eyes of Tammy Faye; Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza. Alvarez played Barnando so well that he surpassed the 1961 iteration and was the best male performer in the newer one. Considering the 2022 West Side Story's high regard, he should have garnered nominations from the Academy and the other film associations. Garfield was likely a casualty of the film’s overall quality not matching his (and Jessica Chastain’s) performance, and limited screen time probably sunk Cooper’s campaign.
Who’ll Win the Statue: Kotsur
The Reel Spill: Kostur was my Best Supporting Actor choice when I finished CODA. I texted a few people that very sentence as soon as the credits rolled. Kotsur’s performance is special because it’s the catalyst that takes CODA from a film about a family led by deaf adults to one simply about family. Nothing in this category compares to it. Smit-McPhee has an outside shot, but the slower pace of his film leaves him behind Kotsur. Hinds had the best performance in Belfast, but being in an ensemble cast doesn’t give him the space to stand out among the nominees. Simmons also had arguably the best performance in his respective film but still rates behind the previously mentioned actors. I’m a huge fan of Plemons, but his inclusion in this category was shocking.
Best Director
Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car
Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza
Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Steven Spielberg, West Side Story
It Should Have Been You: Denis Villeneuve, Dune. The Academy enjoyed Dune enough to give nine nominations, including Best Picture and every technical category. A nomination in one category should not guarantee a nomination or win in another. However, the Academy’s decision not to include Villeneuve is odd because the technical aspects they praised were either his vision or received significant input from him to create said vision. Those pieces needed to be combined and molded to create a coherent film regardless of their high quality. Villeneuve did that so well that the Academy considered the sum of that work one of the year’s ten best films. The math just doesn’t math on the Academy’s decision to leave him out.
Who’ll Win the Statue: Campion
The Reel Spill: I understand why Campion is here. The melancholy tone she sets, the slow but perfect pacing that hides the film’s twist until the ideal moment, and beautiful shots warrant a nomination, but I differ on if she is the best in this group. My vote would go to Speilberg for taking an iconic but whitewashed work and transforming it into a timely, diverse gem that entertains and enlightens. Branagh might be the biggest threat to best Campion as Belfast was an early awards favorite on the festival circuit. Hamaguchi’s biggest obstacle is Drive My Car’s three-hour runtime, as he could have told the same story in a much shorter time frame. Licorice Pizza wasn’t a bad film, but Thomas’s efforts aren’t in the same class as the rest of the nominees.
Best Actress
Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
Penélope Cruz, Parrallel Mothers
Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos
Kristen Stewart, Spencer
It Should Have Been You: Tessa Thompson, Passing. Thompson’s snubbing was a hard pill to swallow. As I stated in my review, Thompson makes her mark with restraint. Her mastery of tightrope between her character’s vulnerability and desires and repressing them as not to blow her and Clare’s respective covers should have easily had her in the awards conversations. Seeing Stewart receive a nomination for giving a lesser version of what Thompson brought to Passing makes the snub more infuriating. It again sends a message regarding the Academy and how they view Black stories, specifically when involving Black women.
Who’ll Win the Statue: Chastain
The Reel Spill: This category is by far the toughest to project. There isn’t a clear frontrunner because that’s changed weekly. Chastain is the most entertaining and the closest thing to a sure bet. Her most prominent threats are Kidman and Cruz. Even with Aaron Sorkin’s writing, I never once saw or felt Lucille Ball when I saw Kidman in Being the Ricardos, and it was a one-note performance. Cruz was more memorable and dynamic. I’m not sure the Academy is bold enough to make her the third woman to win Best Actress with a foreign-language performance, but Cruz might have a better to get the win than Kidman. Stewart should probably rate higher on the list because her performance is second only to Chastain, but she has strangely lost all the momentum she had early in awards season. I love Olivia Colman, but I didn’t love her enough to picture her getting a nomination in The Lost Daughter.
Best Actor
Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
Andrew Garfield, tick, tick…Boom
Will Smith, King Richard
Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth
It Should Have Been You: Peter Dinklage, Cyrano. Dinklage was already facing an uphill battle for a nomination because this is the most loaded category. The studio's failure to adequately campaign on his behalf made things tougher. Still, Dinklage’s display of versatility through humor, song, and heart was deserving of the nomination Bardem received.
Who’ll Win the Statue: Smith
The Reel Spill: This is probably the most legitimately competitive category because there are cases for four of the five walking away with the statue. Smith is tops on my list after giving the best performance of his career. However, Garfield and Washington could rain on Smith’s parade with their theater-based performances, albeit differently. Garfield can win voters over with charisma and showmanship. At the same time, Washington impresses with his seemingly effortless execution of Shakespeare, which comes with a high degree of difficulty for even the most skilled actors. For Cumberbatch, it’s the way he handles the night and day difference of Phil Burkbank before and after the plot twist. Bardem has the resume and skill to compete with the other nominees, but his performance in Being the Ricardos doesn’t stand a chance against any of them today.
Best Picture
Belfast
CODA
Don’t Look Up
Drive My Car
Dune
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
It Should Have Been You: tick, tick…Boom. I don’t feel too strongly about this snub, but there’s no way I’ll ever believe Don’t Look Up and Licorice Pizza are better. tick, tick…Boom was superior to both movies and bore a lot of resemblance to another underdog-based nominee, CODA.
Who’ll Take the Statue: CODA
The Reel Spill: Like Best Actress, this category was hard to project because the frontrunner changed pretty much every week. It appears to be a five-movie race between CODA, Belfast, Power of the Dog, Dune, and West Side Story. My pick is CODA, but the fact that the other four garnered additional nominations in the technical awards tells me they can easily be the Academy’s pick. King Richard is an excellent watch but only has acting and writing in its cap. Nightmare Alley is another good one that deserves to be here but doesn’t excel enough in other areas to impact the race. Drive My Car also has that issue. I wasn’t impressed with Don’t Look Up and felt people were more excited about who it poked fun at than what it brought to the table cinematically. The love for Licorice Pizza seemed to come from people liking Paul Thomas Anderson and not necessarily the actual movie.
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