Eleven months ago (350 days exactly), I stated the 2021 Oscars trended for all the wrong reasons. If only I had known what an understatement the 2022 Oscars would make my sentiment notion just hours after that post went live. The night quickly went to hell in a handbasket for some people at the ceremony, but it went great for me because I nailed all my Oscar predictions.
With that in mind, the 95th Oscars are upon us, and for me that means two things: the opportunity to move on from last year’s madness and all the awful takes that followed and the chance to see if I fare better here than I did with my NBA All-Star Weekend competitions and the Super Bowl picks.
If this is your first time here, my approach to the predictions is 1) discussing the snub(s) of a respective category in the “It Should’ve Been You” section (word to Teddy Pendergrass); 2) giving the Academy’s likely pick in the “Who’ll Win the Statue” section; and 3) a “reel” perspective in which I’ll give my thoughts on the category. If I’m right, I’ll regret not putting money on these picks. If I’m wrong, I’ll chalk my freezing cold takes up to still being terrified and embarrassed as a Black man like some folks claimed from last year’s infamous slap. Without further ado, let’s make some picks.
Best Supporting Actress
Angela Bassett, Wakanda Forever
Hong Chou, The Whale
Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once
It Should’ve Been You – Dolly de Leon, Triangle of Sadness; Jessie Buckley, Women Talking. de Leon is the lynchpin that holds everything in one of the year’s best films. Her performance added intelligence to Triangle of Sadness’s excess and absurdity, allowing the social commentary that put the film in the Oscar conversation hit home. Like de Leon, Buckley’s performance gives her movie an angle that made it one of the year’s best. She masterfully played the subversive force that drives the plight of the women in Women Talking. Being in a strong ensemble where multiple actresses could have received this nomination likely kept Buckley out.
Who’ll Win the Statue: Bassett
The Reel Spill: Bassett’s monologues, specifically when she addresses the United Nations and as she responds to a failed mission, are two of the best in Hollywood this year, regardless of category. That’s what got her here and should get her the trophy. The women of Everything Everywhere All at Once are the greatest threat to a Bassett win. I want to see Hsu win if Bassett doesn’t because she carried EEAAO when Michelle Yeoh didn’t. However, I can also see Curtis taking it based on her longevity in the business, barring the ladies splitting votes. Condon’s nomination is deserved, but Bassett, Hsu, and Curtis were better this year. Chou’s nomination was surprising because her performance didn’t move me at any point during The Whale, and her presence didn’t impact the film. That nomination should have gone to either de Leon or Buckley.
Best Supporting Actor
Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway
Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans
Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin
Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
It Should’ve Been You: Paul Dano, The Fabelmans. While the Academy pretty much got this category right, including Dano would have made it perfect. It’s not the flashiest part, but Dano uses subtlety to make the audience empathize with the Fabelman patriarch as he loves his family but doesn’t understand how to love them. It resonated far more than a few of the performances in the category.
Who’ll Win the Statue: Quan
The Reel Spill: My guy Data finally has his day! This has been Quan’s award to lose since the moment EEAAO premiered. What sets Quan apart from his competition was that he gave EEAAO its heart, regardless of the film’s stage. It’s easily the most entertaining performance of the bunch. Though his real competition isn’t here due to the Dano snub, Keoghan and Gleason are Quan’s biggest but distant obstacles to the trophy. Hirsch is even more distant because his few scenes aren’t enough to be given heavy consideration. It was great to see Tyree’s performance get recognized, but his nomination should have gone to Dano.
Best Director
Todd Field, Tar
Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, a.k.a. The Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of the Inisherin
Ruben Östlund, Triangle of Sadness
Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
It Should’ve Been You: Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front. Like Denis Villeneuve last year, Berger got snubbed despite his film earning nine nominations. Again, on the one hand they rewarded the technical and creative decisions he made or had a part in, but on the other hand, he’s somehow not as good as the directors whose films have fewer nominations? It doesn’t make sense.
Who’ll Win the Statue: The Daniels
The Reel Spill: Like Quan in the Best Supporting Actor category, Best Director has been the Daniels’ award to lose since EEAAO premiered. They helmed a film that lived up to its name by having everything everywhere in one movie. It was aesthetically pleasing yet entertaining, enlightening, and touching all at the same time. There may be some temptation for a sentimental reward for Field (first film in 16 years) and Spielberg (longevity), but I don’t see that stopping the Daniels. McDonah and Östlund made the two best arthouse films of the year, but they weren’t good enough to reach beyond that audience.
Best Actress
Ana de Armas, Blonde
Cate Blanchett, Tar
Andrea Riseborough, To Leslie
Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans
Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
It Should’ve Been You: Viola Davis, The Woman King; Danielle Deadwyler, Till; Mia Goth, Pearl; Regina Hall, Honk for Jesus. Save Your Soul. So we can call this section “What Happens When Your Average Member is a White Male Senior Citizen” because these snubs epitomize the fact change is still a ways away from the Academy. Davis and Deadwyler were considered shoo-ins for nominations until the day they weren’t nominated, with Deadwyler being looked at as a frontrunner as recently as December. Hall was more of a reach, but her performance in Honk for Jesus wasn’t too far from the type of versatility that got Jamie Lee Curtis nominated for this year, sans a fight scene or two. The same goes for Goth, except she got more physical than Hall due to her character and the film’s genre.
Who’ll Win the Statue: Yeoh
The Reel Spill: To grasp how special Yeoh’s performance in EEATO was, consider this – she’s practically playing about five parts in the movie, and she would still be worthy of a nomination for all but one (the action role) if they were individual films. As much as I love Blanchett, there’s no way she’s topping that, even with a performance in Tar that would win it for her any other year. de Armas is spectacular in Blonde, but the film's overall quality ended her chances of winning before they started.
Williams and Riseborough’s nominations are the result of a flawed process. In Williams’s case, it’s the fact that the voters described above can watch The Fabelmans and decide that a SUPPORTING actress in a movie that does not belong to her is somehow better than Davis and Deadwyler. Every other film award organization nominated Davis and Deadwyler, while Williams was shut out. For Risenborough, her performance was decent, but privilege catapulted it to Oscar-nominated because her network is that same group of voters who openly admit to ignoring Black films.
Best Actor
Austin Butler, Elvis
Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
Brendan Fraser, The Whale
Paul Mescal, Aftersun
Bill Nighy, Living
It Should Have Been You: Jonathan Majors, Devotion. It’s not the powerhouse performance that usually lands one in this category, but Majors’s portrayal of hero Jesse Brown deserved to be here given those who made the list. The mix of brains, braun, and humanity that he brought to the Brown role warranted a nomination ahead of both Mescal and Nighy. My best guess as to why he didn’t make the field is voters simply didn’t watch the film.
Who’ll Win the Statue: Fraser
The Reel Spill: Despite having the most competitive battle, this category is the weakest of the season because that battle is only between two people. Choosing between Fraser and Butler at this point literally comes down to a flip of the coin. Both become the roles they play to the point where the actors are unrecognizable. They also singlehandedly raise the levels of their respective films. I give Fraser the edge here because he has less support in his film and it’s his role alone that makes The Whale worth watching. Farrell is excellent in Banshees, but the gap between him and the two frontrunners widens with every look at them. Mescal is a tier below Farrell and Nighy, who’s always solid, doesn’t belong in the group ahead of Majors.
Best Picture
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Tar
Top Gun: Maverick
Triangle of Sadness
Women Talking
It Should’ve Been You: Nobody. The Academy got this one right.
Who’ll Take the Statue: Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Reel Spill: This category is a two-nominee race like Best Actor, but it has a much stronger field. The uniqueness of EEAAO has carried it through the season and there’s no reason to think anything will change…until you see All Quiet on the Western Front, my sleeper pick.I’ve shown no shame in telling the world EEAAO is my favorite film of 2022, but Western Front’s exploration of World War I through the eyes of teenagers in the German army quickly made its way to being a close second. It’s both a technical and narrative marvel like EEAAO, but clearly from a vastly different place since it’s rooted in an historical event and EEAAO is fantasy. Elvis could put up a fight given how well it’s represented in the technical categories along with Butler’s nomination and the same goes for The Fabelmans. The remaining films are excellent in their own right, yet they don’t have enough to challenge for the trophy.
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