Countless hours in the theater and being frustrated in the concession stand line all comes down to this – Oscar Night. There are two ways to approach tonight’s awards. One way is attempting to think like the Academy, which is easy to do in some years and impossible in others. The other way is the honest approach, which allows us to be "reel" about who deserves what. I did both and in the aftermath I will either look like a genius or have a post full of freezing cold takes. Either way, it's all in fun and here are my Oscar picks:
BEST ACTOR
Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory
Leonardo DiCaprio, Once upon a Time...in Hollywood
Adam Driver, Marriage Story
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes
Who’ll Probably Take the Statue: It feels like Joaquin Phoenix had this award won from the day his performance hit the screen at the Venice International Film Festival in August. That’s not to say the other performances aren’t good. DiCaprio’s Rick Dalton was probably my favorite character from last year, Driver flawlessly acted out the complexities of being a parent in a divorce and/or custody battle, and Pryce was an absolute joy to watch from beginning to end. However, none came close to matching Phoenix and the way he took a well-known comic book villain and made him into a sympathetic figure with a strong relevance to our current state.
If We’re Being Honest: Joker is Joaquin Phoenix’s Kobe 81-point game – he has always been good but yet he found a way to show he’s better than we thought. No one deserves this award more this year. Banderas was good but his nomination should have gone to Eddie Murphy, Taron Egerton, or Adam Sandler.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes
Al Pacino, The Irishman
Joe Pesci, The Irishman
Brad Pitt, Once upon a Time...in Hollywood
Who’ll Probably Take the Statue: With all the awards season love he’s received, I have Brad Pitt winning this one. Hanks is probably the nominee with the best chance at pulling an upset but I don’t see Mr. Rogers winning over voters vs. Old Hollywood. Pesci and Pacino are likely splitting votes. Hopkins was good but probably an afterthought when compared to the other nominees
If We’re Being Honest: Tom Hanks deserves this one. The fact he was able to nail the physical characteristics of Fred Rogers despite being significantly bigger than him is one thing. However, the fact that Hanks was able to nail the more intangible aspects of Rogers that made you think about the lessons he taught the Lloyd Vogel character beyond the movie took this performance to another level. I’m actually shocked it wasn’t considered for Best Actor instead of Best Supporting.
BEST ACTRESS
Cynthia Erivo, Harriet
Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
Saoirse Ronan, Little Women
Charlize Theron, Bombshell
Renée Zellweger, Judy
Who’ll Probably Take the Statue: Renée Zellweger has won every major film association award for which her Judy Garland role was nominated. I don’t see that streak stopping at the Oscars. Johansson might be the biggest threat to Zellweger because she’s an Academy favorite this year. Ronan’s chances were likely hurt by being part of a star-studded ensemble that made it difficult to really standout. Theron can’t overcome the fact 1) the Academy is fatigued on the film’s subject matter and 2) people really hate the person she portrayed. Erivo’s performance wasn’t given a chance to match the others because the script was so bad.
If We’re Being Honest: The gap between Zellweger and Theron isn’t that far apart and I’d venture to say Theron’s performance was actually better. While this wasn’t the strongest year for the Best Actress category, Erivo’s nomination is still surprising to me because I thought the supporting cast was better than her. It feels like the nomination is out of reverence for the film’s subject and not her performance.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell
Laura Dern, Marriage Story
Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit
Florence Pugh, Little Women
Margot Robbie, Bombshell
Who’ll Probably Take the Statue: Dern is another nominee who has swept all the major awards for this role so she’s the pick for me as well.
If We’re Being Honest: Dern should be the choice. Pugh was impressive, but like her Little Women co-star Ronan, her job was made easier with a strong cast. Bates was excellent, but her very limited screen time hurt her chances. Not sure why Johansson and Robbie made the list, especially over The Farewell’s Zhao Shuzhen. Love ScarJo and Margot but not enough put them ahead of Shuzhen in this category
BEST DIRECTOR
Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
Todd Phillips, Joker
Sam Mendes, 1917
Quentin Tarantino, Once upon a Time...in Hollywood
Bong Joon-ho, Parasite
Who’ll Probably Take the Statue: All signs point to Mendes. The temptation to go with Tarantino or Joon-ho was there, but the Academy (hopefully) recognizes Mendes managed to be the star of one of the 3 best films of the year from behind the camera and broke new ground in the war movie genre in the process.
If We’re Being Honest: Scorsese is without question one of film’s GOATs. That being said, he doesn’t belong in this category and it feels like an honorary nomination. Like any nomination it received outside Best Actor, Joker has no business in this category either and Phillips whining about how his post-Hangover comedies flopping because of woke culture makes his nomination harder to stomach. Scorsese’s and Phillips’s nominations should have gone to Little Women’s Greta Gerwig and The Farewell’s Lulu Wang
BEST PICTURE
Ford v Ferrari
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
Marriage Story
1917
Once upon a Time...in Hollywood
Parasite
Who’ll Probably Take the Statue: It’s a 3-horse race between Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood, 1917, and Parasite. All 3 deserve to be in the conversation and each respective guild (Directors, Producers, and Screen Actors) chose a different film among those 3 films so it’s hard to say which direction the Academy goes. My gut tells me they’ll go with Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood.
If We’re Being Honest: Parasite is my personal favorite from this group, but Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood deserves to be the pick because the acting gives it the slightest edge. Little Women and Marriage Story would be better contenders in any other year. Jojo Rabbit and Joker have no business in this category and The Farewell was far more deserving to be there than both.
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